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Tropics Outlook

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SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
735 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending northward from the
Bahamas to just offshore of the coast of the Carolinas are
associated with an upper-level trough and a weak surface low located
a couple of hundred miles east of the northeast Florida coast.
Conditions are expected to become gradually more favorable for
development over the next day or so while this system moves slowly
northward and then northwestward. A subtropical or tropical cyclone
could form by tomorrow or Friday, and interests along the southeast
coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this
system. Regardless of development, heavy rain is possible over
portions of the coastal southeastern United States beginning
tomorrow. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued
on this system by 2 AM EDT on Thursday. For additional information,
see products from your local National Weather Service forecast
office and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service are
available under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml

Forecaster Pasch/Kimberlain


Last updated at: 5/6/2015 9:34:26 PM ET
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