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TRACKING THE TROPICS

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Tropics Outlook

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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Surface and upper-air observations indicate that the low pressure
system located over the southwestern Bay of Campeche is gradually
becoming better defined. This system has the potential to become a
tropical cyclone during the next two to three days while it moves
slowly eastward to east-northeastward, before it interacts and
possibly merges with a frontal system towards the end of the week.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the disturbance tomorrow afternoon, if necessary.
Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of
this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

2. A large non-tropical low is located over the far eastern Atlantic
Ocean a few hundred miles southeast of the Azores. This system is
producing gale-force winds and could gradually acquire some
subtropical characteristics during the next few days while it
moves slowly westward over relatively warm waters. Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW.

Forecaster Stewart


Last updated at: 10/20/2014 5:19:14 PM ET
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