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TRACKING THE TROPICS

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SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1025 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special outlook issued to discuss results of aircraft
reconnaissance mission.

1. Updated...Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft and satellite imagery indicate that the disturbance located
near Hispaniola continues to lack a well-defined surface
circulation. As a result, advisories are not being initiated at this
time. However, environmental conditions are favorable for the
development of a tropical depression or tropical storm later today
or Sunday. Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon.

This disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward over or near
the southeastern Bahamas today, and over or near the central Bahamas
Sunday and Sunday night. Heavy rains and gusty winds are expected to
continue over Puerto Rico and Hispaniola today. Winds to tropical
storm force and heavy rains are expected to spread over the
southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the central
Bahamas through Sunday night. These rains could cause life-
threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous
areas of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Interests in the Turks and
Caicos and all of the Bahamas should monitor the progress of this
disturbance, since tropical storm watches and warnings could be
required with little advance notice.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Brennan


Last updated at: 8/23/2014 11:23:07 AM ET
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