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TRACKING THE TROPICS

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Tropics Outlook

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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located over the southwestern Bay of Campeche are currently limited.
This system still has the potential to become a tropical cyclone
during the next couple of days while it moves slowly eastward across
the southern Bay of Campeche. Later in the week, the low is forecast
to interact and possibly merge with a frontal system over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico or northwestern Caribbean Sea. An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate
the disturbance this afternoon, if necessary. Interests in the
Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

2. A large non-tropical low is located over the far eastern Atlantic
Ocean a few hundred miles southeast of the Azores. This system is
producing winds to gale-force and could gradually acquire some
subtropical characteristics during the next day or so while
it moves slowly westward. Upper-level winds are forecast to become
less conducive for subtropical or tropical cyclone formation by late
Wednesday and development after that time is not likely. Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW.

Forecaster Brown


Last updated at: 10/21/2014 4:59:56 AM ET
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